Determined’s blog

I haven't posted anything since January.  I think it is about time I post my intentions for 2010.  I think what I will do at this point is.....:

1.  I have signed up for an account on Full Tilt Poker using a different screen name than the one I use on PokerStars.  I have rakeback on this one so it is a lot cheaper for me to play than on Stars.  I intend to use the Chris Ferguson method of going from $100 to $10,000 that he did a few years back.  Only he started with $ 0 and spent the first nine months playing free plays trying to get some real money.  I will start with what I have on the site and try and run it up using his bankroll management practices.  Should work.

2.  I am going to try and improve my play by concentrating on Sit and Goes on PokerStars.  They have some double or nothing games that are both fast and easy.  I figure I can play ten or twenty of them a day and average about two or three buyins of profit at least.  The last two weeks I have been doing this and it seems to be working.  I think that is what I will do on Stars, although every once in a while I like to play some cash games at small stakes.  I don't seem to do well in them however, do great for a while and then spew huge chunks for an hour or so and lose everyting I have worked hard to get.  Got to stop doing that.

3.  Still want to take my shots at the $unday million$ once in a while.

I didn't go to the WSOP last year and I may not this year unless I start playing better and win some money.  Played hardly at all in cash games this year, but lost when I did and that has not happened to me ever before.  Must re-evaluate my game and improve.

Betting in SitGos requires a lot of thought and a lot of reading of your opponents, just like any other form of no limit poker.  I am going to discuss some of the considerations we use in determining our betting during the course of the game, but an advanced player must keep in mind that any game or table they are playing could be wildly different than those situations discussed here. I will begin by describing the situation and then discuss the specific bet and the thinking that goes behind it.  The assumption here is that we are going to be playing tight-aggressive and adjust as the game progresses.

Before you put chips into the pot, you need to ask yourself a few questions and then answer them.  The answers will change depending on your hand and position in the game, and will change again as the game progresses and the blinds go up with fewer players remaining.  Let's ask the questions:

What position am I playing this hand from? 

What is my stack size and what are the stack sizes of the players that acted before me and those that are acting after me?

What hand am I playing?

What do I know about the players that act after me?

Assuming that I am playing this hand, what am I trying to accomplish and how am I going to do that?

What am I going to do if one player calls my bet?

.......two players call?

........more than two players call?

.......if someone raises my bet?

.......if someone pushes all-in pre flop?

What do I know about the playing styles or play of the players at this table?

 OK, let's go over some of the possible answers to these questions:

What position am I playing from?  Grammar aside, this is always an important question.  It will determine how you are going to bet as well as what hands you are going to play.  Generally speaking, we are trying to see as many cheap flops as possible and flop a huge, well disguised monster hand.  Early on in this game we are going to play tight, so position determines what hands we will play, AT on the button we will play, ATo UTG we will probably fold on the first couple of rounds. 

What are the stack sizes of the other players to act?  This is always a consideration as well and becomes more and more important as the game progresses and the stacks become skewed.  Early in the game, you are looking for what the big stack is likely to do and if the small (really small, <500) stack is likely to shove pre flop.  You should always be aware of the small stack and consider if he is ready to start shoving PF or not.  The bigger stacks should be considered as to whether or not they are likely to try and bully/bluff the table.  Again, this may not happen the first orbit or two, or it might happen beginning with the second hand of the game.

What hand am I playing?  I have already decided to play the hand and have folded everything else, now do I have AA, AK, or 99?  They all play very different and I need to consider.

What do I know about the players that act after me?  If it is the first orbit, then I might not know anything, but it is essential that I make some observations quickly and be ready to predict their behavior and responses before I make a bet.  It helps if I have played with them before.  I am trying to determine who wil call light, who will reraise light, who will fold medium strength hands if oop, who will call anything from any position, etc.....

What am I trying to accomplish and how am I going to do that?  This is the essence of betting and in the first few orbits can be very difficult to know without information on the rest of the table.  Am I trying to limp in with a mediocre hand and see a cheap flop?  Am I trying to steal an unentered pot with a medium strength hand?  Am I playing big unpaired cards like AK or AQ?  Do I want a call?   A raise?  If the pot has been entered already, do I want them to call or fold?

The last two questions expound upon this one.  What am I going to do if someone calls or pushes after I bet?  And Again, what do I know about the players at this table.  I know I have asked that before, but it is important to be making reads on the other players. 

In the first 6 positions after the button, the blinds plus four, I am going to try and limp into the pot with any pair less than TT.  Yes, even 99.  And I will occasionally do the same with TT if I suspect someone behind me will raise.  The reason I am doing this is that most bets and raises get called in sitgos and there is no reason to try and push anyone off a pot they will call anyway.  I can't limit the calls that easily, so I will limp and try for a set.  Later on, when you have reads, you can bet to steal or build pots that you can take later in the hand.  Early on, just limp PPs under TT.

TT-QQ I will raise pretty high, often to 5BB or more, especially if someone is already in the pot.  I probably won't be able to push anyone out that has an Ace in his hand, but I want to know what I am up against and try to hold the callers to one or two.  Suited connectors call almost anything, but can be pushed out with a large enough raise.  That is the amount you want to be betting, enough to get the sucons to fold, it is unlikely the Aces will fold regardless.

Mike Caro writes that there is a "calling reflex" in players.  This is very true of sitgos.  Players that have already entered the pot either limping or a small raise, will almost always call a reraise.  If you have KK or AA, I suggest that you bet about 3-4BB if no one has entered the pot, but I almost always reraise 3x the last bet if someone has already put in a bet.  This will tell me something about the player.  If he folds, he is a pretty good player or has a very weak hand.  If he calls he is an average player or has a pretty strong hand.  If he re-reraises, then he has AA, KK or is making a mistake with AK or worse.

AK-AJs.  These are great hands to play, but you must take as much as you can pre flop as they lose value quickly after missing the flop.  Bet them hard, especially early in the game, 4-5BB or more even if no one has entered the pot.  You may just get the blinds, but that is fine.

That's how I would play all but the last three positions, button, cut-off and hi-jack.  Those positions should be played a little more open, i.e., raise with some of your more mediocre hands and come in with the sucons as well.  You still want to see a cheap flop, but you also want to take down the pot now without being called by the really mediocre hands oop.  The problem is that once someone has limped or bet into the pot, it is very difficult to push them out, therefore, if players are already in the pot, limp in unless you have a great hand.  If the pot has not been opened, then bet more (4xBB+) and try and keep them out or represent strength. 

I played a Sit&Go today that was absolutely fascinating.  It played exactly as you want it; it moved fast, I always got the cards I needed and I won every race.  It was both exciting and fantastic.  The very first hand gave me KK on the button.  UTG limped in and everyone else folded to me.  I raised to 3xBB and the blinds folded.  UTG called and we saw a flop that was QT3 rainbow.  I bet about 80 and he called.  That told me there was a good chance he had a Q and that he either had a good kicker and wasn't worried about my kicker or he had already paired the kicker and had two pair.  Didn't really think T3 was a possibility.  Turn was a 7 (I think)  and he checked to me again.  I bet 250 and he called quickly again.  I was a bit worried about two pair but wondered why he hadn't reraised me if he was worried about my hand at all.  The river was a 5 and he checked again.  I value bet about 400 and he reraised all in.  I shouldn't have put quite that much in the pot, 200 would have been better.  I wasn't pot committed, but I had too much in for a first hand for sure.  I just felt he had a Q and not two pair, so I called and he showed AQ off and I took the pot.  And it went like that pretty much the whole game.  I waited for big hands and took out players that had lesser hands.  I didn't have to steal much, I didn't have to wait very long, the hands just came and were always the right hand.  Like magic.  The only interesting hand that was unusual was that I kept getting Ac Jc.  I was dealt this hand four times in the middle of the game and it was wild.  The first time I raised from early position and when another player went all in, I folded, as it seemed he was playing tight and probably had a better hand.  The next time I had it I called someone's raise, saw a J high flop and called the all-in of the small stack.  He had 44 and was gone.  The third time I had it, I raised, was called, got an A on the flop and won a pretty big pot, but didn't knock him out.  The fourth time I got it, the small stack went all in and turned up pocket 88.  The flop was all clubs and he was drawing dead.  And that is the way the tourney went.  I eliminated one opponent after another and eventually, eliminated them all.  One after another, over and over again, a player would get a decent hand at the same time I had a hand and in we would go.  I won them all and that was it.  When I had beaten all but two players, I had over 10,000 in chips and they both had less than 2,000.  I took out one and the remaining guy had very few chips.  First hand of heads up, KK for me.  He goes all in with Q7 and the tourney is over.  Quick and fast.  Wow.

2009 will be a new year and I think this is as good a time as any to sit and reflect on what I want to accomplish for 2009.  I want to be a consistently profitable player.  That's what I want.  And I have to admit, I don't know if I am capable of obtaining that status.  I will read, practice, study, play and learn, but I don't know if that will be enough.  It wasn't in 2008.  I read, studied, practiced, played, learned and.......lost consistently in 2008.  All year, game after game, hand after hand, tournament after tournament.  Lost, lost and lost some more.  Oh sure, I'd have a tournament, a game or a hand here and there that I would win once in a while, but consistently?  No.

Sure, I take a lot of bad beats and am currently stuck in a losing variance the likes of which I have never heard of or seen before with anyone.  Writers on PokerPages, which I have referred to, write about their bad beats as if they really believe that getting beat by AA when you have KK is a bad beat.  Huh?  The definition of bad beat is that YOU, not your opponent, have the best hand when the money is shoved into the pot.  They seem to think that every hand they lose is somehow a "bad beat"

There is a very profitable Sit&Go player on PokerStars that is extremely lucky in my opinion.  He routinely knoks me out of tournaments on the bubble.  We both play tight early on and pretty much the same range of hands until we get to about 5 players left.  Then he starts to make a series of all-in push moves with just about any face card in his hand or if he has position, any two cards.  72o on the button?  Push.  J5o in the cutoff? Push.  With 4 players left and about the same amount of chips in our stack, he pushes all-in with Q7o.  Both of us had about $2,500 in chips left, the two low stacks left.  I called from the BB with KK.  The flop was QQ3, the turn 7 and I was out.  That has been happening to me regularly lately.  AA vs 95o?  I lost against two pair.  TT vs 66?  Lost against quads.  AA vs 99 with flop Ah 3h 7c?  Lost to runner runner hearts as he had 9h.  Notice he had waited until flop to push and still managed to win with runner runner board.  Same thing happened again the next day as my QQ lost to 44 all in pre flop and four spades managed to hit board for him.  So I guess I am not very lucky.  Therefore, I will not win tournaments, games or anything enough to be profitable.  Quit?  That would be the sensible solution.  After all, you can't force luck and random cards.  They happen.  Bad luck stretches can last years or perhaps even lifetimes.  How will you know unless you play?  I don't want to play and lose.  And no matter how well I play and how well I do, the bad beats and suckouts keep coming and I lose.

So, in 2009, I am going to reduce my stakes and play for micro amounts of money until my luck turns and I can play profitably again.  I can't see another solution.

I will still write about poker and some interesting things that happen along the way, but some of the games I write about will be micro stakes.

Good Luck in 2009!!!

Congratulations!  You have successfully made it to the last two players on the table.  Now you have to figure out how to eliminate the final opponent.  It really isn't that difficult to do.  Here is the easiest method to eliminating a single opponent heads up.

There are two different strategies to heads up play, one for when you are the small stack and one for when you are the big stack.  Let's take a look at each in turn.  Remember that when you go from big stack to small stack or the reverse, you must change your play accordingly.

When you are the small stack, you must play as many hands as possible and push absolutely every advantage you may have.  BUT, and it is a big 'but', you should not chase draws.  Instead, as soon as you have the advantage in cards, even if that advantage is a draw, simply move all-in at that moment and force your opponent to make a decision on whether he has enough of a hand that he wishes to risk doubling you up in return for winning the tournament.  This is the key concept in heads up play.  Always, ALWAYS, take advantage of any edge you might have and push it hard.  You can even shove it all-in pre flop with just about any Ace or any two face cards.  I would recommend doing that if your opponent is constantly raising or reraising you pre flop with any two cards in his hand.  If he is, then fold your crappy hands, 23o, 27o, etc..., call with your decent hands, T8o, Q7o, etc...., and raise or shove with your better than average hands, KQ, AT, etc...

Be patient enough to wait for an advantage, but push the advantage hard as soon as you have it.  DON'T let your opponent have a free card or see a cheap flop when you have the advantage.  Make them pay.  And PUSH HARD means that you bet at least the pot or even go all in.  Do not make a small bet that your opponent can call because you are giving him odds to call a draw with over cards.

The same goes for when you have the big stack.  The difference is that you will push hard, raise every chance you have and call any bet, pre flop or post flop, that you can afford.  You will NEVER fold or limp pre flop with any two cards when you are first to act.  Never.  It is the cardinal sin of HU poker.  Put pressure on your opponent to make a mistake when he is short stacked.  Call his all-in with any Ace, any pair and any two reasonable face cards, also with any suited connectors if you have him outstacked by more than 3-1.  In other words, be aggressive and take him out if you have the stack advantage. 

That's a general plan, you can get a better idea of how and when to push and call by visiting a few websites that have the SAGE graph for heads up poker.

This will usually catch your opponent off guard a bit because you will have gotten to this position by playing tighter than most of your opponents.  Thus, switching gears and being aggressive will almost always be an advantage itself.  Of course, if he hits a two outer on the river to double through you a couple of times, well, that's just the way it goes sometimes. 

In this part, we are going to discuss the very beginning of play.  Our basic premise is going to revolve around the concept that you simply can not play too tight at the begininning of a sitgo.  You can't.  It is quite possible to sit out for the first few orbits and do just fine.  This will seem to contradict our strategy of trying to play as many hands as possible, but it doesn't.  Let me explain how they work in harmony.

You begin by observing how everyone at the table, indeed, how the table itself, is playing.  Is the table playing tight?  Is it playing loose?  Are raises being called?  Are players just trying to limp into pots?  Observe and find out, quickly!  You need to make some assessments here and to start categorizing players as the first couple of orbits make their way around the table.  But if you are a person that can change later and adjust, then these can be simple, first impression type judgements.  You may even be familiar with one or two players at the table from previous sitgos.

Find the table idiot.  You already know who this guy is; the one that plays every hand, calls every pre flop raise, bets every flop and either goes out early or catches some cards and doubles early.  After the first two orbits he is either the chip leader or he is seriously short stacked, possibly even gone.  You don't want to be involved with him unless you have super premium hands like AA, KK or AK.  Find him and watch him.  If he survives, we will use him as a source of chips later on.

Next begin observing how the players to your left defend the blinds.  You want to start to notice this right from the beginning and continue until you are in the money.  It is going to come into play big time in the middle of the tourney.  You want to know who gives up the blinds rather easily and who calls every raise in an attempt to defend them, and everything in between.  It is important that you watch at least the four players to your immediate left as it is possible that one or two of them will be out early and the players to your left in the middle of the tourney may not be the same as the ones you begin with.  I recently played a sitgo during which no one went out early and beginning with the third orbit I caught AK, AQ, AQs, and QQ in the same position for four rounds.  Both the SB and BB folded every hand.  Don't you think they had to be wondering if I was picking on them, trying to steal their blinds each orbit?  I'm sure they were, but sometimes you just get cards like that in the same position for awhile, so it is good to know how your blinds will play.  Later on, I was able to steal their blinds when I needed, simply because I already knew they weren't likely to defend them strongly.

If you don't play a single hand for three orbits, you will lose between 105-150 chips to the blinds.  This means you have plenty of time, you can play tight and you don't need to worry about being blinded out of the tourney.

So play tight.  UTG you should start by playing only AQ or better and if you want to dump that and just play AK the first round or two, fine.  Pocket pairs should probably be no smaller than 77, dump the rest.

UTG+1.  Same, AQ or better for first couple of orbits, then you can add AJ and possibly ATs if the table will allow you to play it.  Fold to reraises pre flop with all except AQ or better.

UTG+2.  Same, AQ or better for the first couple of orbits, then add AJ and ATs.  Also start to add any pocket pair if the table will allow you to play them, fold to reraises pre flop.

UTG+3-4.  Middle position allows you to play more hands simply because fewer players are left to act.  Play all pocket pairs and KQ, KJs, KTs, QJs and other suited connectors down to your comfort level of suited connectors.  Mine is 98s, I won't play smaller sucons since I am not comfortable even if I hit it pretty good.

Late position:  I am going to include the hijack seat as well as cutoff and button.  The last three positions are going to be used strongly later on, for the first three orbits, just play all pocket pairs, all suited connectors, suited Aces, any face combination, etc...  BUT there are two caveats to this for the first three orbits.  The first is that we are just calling small raises to see a cheap  flop assuming we have at least $1,300 in chips.  The second is that we are just limping in with the weaker part of this group in an unraised pot as we are not interested in risking many chips at this stage of the tourney.  Tight and cheap is what we are looking for. 

Betting is a bit tricky in sitgos.  Early on, you need to figure out if you can steal, or if you can limp.  By steal I mean raise a standard 3-4xBB and take the pot right there.  By limp I mean come in with just a call and then not have anyone acting behind you raise your call.  If the table is playing tight, then you can limp or steal, if the table is loose, or at least the players behind you are loose, then you can not limp into a pot and stealing is out of the question.  Most tables will be either tight or loose, with a player somewhere that is actively playing most hands.  As mentioned before, he is the table idiot and we will use him later.  But right now, if he is in the hand before you, then call with the above hands and fold everyting else.  If he is to act behind you, then do not try to steal with marginal hands, try to limp in with a few good hands early and see if he calls or raises 3-4xBB.  If he raises a little bit, you can go ahead and call his raise with your opening hands, they should be strong enough to play.  If ANYONE else raises, then you must fold all but the strongest hands.

If you miss the flop, just check it down or fold to any bet.  It isn't worth going out with a bad bluff.  If you hit the hand pretty hard, top pair or better, then bet out if your opponents check it to you and call their bets if they bet out.  If you think they can stand a reraise, then hit for two or three times their bet.  Otherwise, call if you have a big hand and try to build the pot a bit.  You are looking for a big hand early, but you don't want to risk a mediocre hand like top pair and decent kicker or second pair.  Those you make a single pot sized bet after the flop and then keep the pot small if your opponent calls.  But if you have a big hand, set, flush, etc...  bet it out about half the pot, and keep betting each street trying to build the pot and take down a monster hand.  If your opponent bets into you or reraises you after the flop, then go ahead and push in occasionally and try to double up.  In sitgos, you have to be a bit aggressive when you are in hands, slow playing is not a good idea.  Big pairs like AA or KK you should raise pre flop most of the time, especially early.  We might trap with these hands later in the tourney, but not early.  Bet them all the way.

This is the first in a series of articles on S&G strategies to help you get profitable immediately rather than waste time playing a losing strategy.  We have all been there, you want to play poker so you start out with a few sitgos because they are within your bankroll and only take about an hour.  Yet you can't seem  to catch a break or get into the money very often.  Once or twice you parlay AA or KK early into a few cashes, but over the first few dozen or so sitgos you play, you see your bankroll slowly slip away.  Like I said, we've all been there.

Luck has little to do with sitgo results, if you play the proper strategy, you will win often and cash regularly.  If you don't, you won't.  It is that simple.  Learn how to play and stick to playing that way every time.  Sitgos can be very profitable for the player who wants to put the work into learning.  Several big name players you see at the WSOP are either sitgo specialistists or began their careers with sitgos.  Once you have mastered the strategy, you can move up in buy-in level to whatever is comfortable for you and your bankroll.  Good luck.

Step 1.  Before you sit down and play, decide what site you are going to play on, pick the level of buy-in that you want and then pick a table and click on it to observe.  Start to finish, sitgos take about an hour.  You need to observe a few before you begin play.  Yes, even if you are an "experienced" player.  The reason you are going to watch a few is because you need to see the strategy in action and follow it as best you can.  Find a game and then do a search on some of the players until you find  some that are playing multiple games at once.  This isn't too difficult, as many players are regulars on PokerStars and this is what they do.  Find at least three names.  Good.  Now go to the website  www.sharkscope.com and look up their stats.  You do this to find out if any of them are any good and to find a really good player that wins alot.  If none of them are profitable and play a lot of games, then go back to the tables and keep looking for players until you find one.  This isn't difficult, it just takes effort.

Step 2.  Now go back to the sitgo tables, find your guy and watch him play a few games.  Watch how he does at the beginning, middle and end.  Keep watching these until this guy wins one of them.  If he is a good player, it won't take that many.  You are going to watch the strategy, watch how he bets, notice which hands he plays in what position, how he changes during the game as players get busted out, how he plays shortstacked, how he plays with a big stack, etc..  Does he aggressively go all-in when he is shortstacked?  Does he aggressively call small stack pushes when he is the big stack?  What about when he is in the middle?  When there are four players left?

Step 3.  You should write down what you have observed and think it through.  What you should have observed is your successful player playing very tight at the beginning of the tournament.  Most likely, he didn't even play a hand the first orbit or two.  Or if he did, it was a monster hand like AA or KK.  That is because most good sitgo players understand that you will not win the tournament playing loose aggressive and being involved in lots of hands early.  If your guy isn't playing tight early, go find another guy that is successful and observe again. 

In Part II we will start playing. 

Leaks, like water torture, slowly destroy your life.  In this case, they turn an otherwise profitable poker strategy into a losing one.  Everyone has leaks, weaknesses they have to work on, but if you can plug a few of the worst ones, then you can get back on the profitable poker track.  I am constantly working to improve my game, so let's review some of my worst leaks and see if we can find a few ways to improve your game as well.

1.  Maintain self discipline.  I am constantly telling myself to wait for strong starting hands and position and then getting bored and not waiting.  This is deadly as I play weak hands out of position that get trounced by players exercising more patience and discipline and playing stronger hands against me.  Stay focused and maintain the self discipline you advocate.

2.  Stop completing the small blind.  This is just stupid.  Unless you have a solid enough hand to play out of position, fold this hand and avoid the losses that ensue when you play weak cards.  This can be subtle and seductive, it is soooo tempting to complete the small blind with some marginal hand in the hopes of hitting a monster flop.  But it rarely happens, the odds overwelmingly don't favor it, and you lose half a blind or more instead.  It all adds up and costs you big bucks over time.

3.  Don't chase flushes or straights unless you are given the odds to make the call.  This is also kind of subtle.  You see someone make a call for a pot size bet and then hit his flush on the turn, so you want to do that as well.  But you have to realize that in the long run, against good players, you will not win much money calling or betting draws against a player that knows how to bet and doesn't give you the odds to make the call.  So shut it down and stop drawing.  Once in awhile, ONCE in awhile, play back at someone that is automatically betting every flush or straight draw by RE RAISING them to keep them honest.  But don't call every flush draw bet when you don't have the odds.

4.  No matter how bad you are playing or how bad you are losing, DON"T ever change your game and play like an idiot because "other guys do it and it works".  It doesn't work and you will only go on tilt.  Don't limp with AA or KK EVER and don't check with a set unless you are sure one of your opponents will bet out.  I watched as a player in the WSOP Main Event limped with AA and then proceeded to lose the hand when the KT that had opened the pot made a straight on the river.  It was a horrible play and reminded me that you never limp with AA in a tournament.

5.  Stop calling when you are beat.  After the river has hit the board and there are four cards to a straight or a flush and you have top pair or set, fold to the big bet that just came out.  You don't need to see it, he isn't bluffing and you have lost the hand.  If someone bets after the river as if their hand can beat the board, then it is time to fold.  Do it.

Do these things and you will win a lot more money in the future. 

I was playing in a satellite tourny today to get into the Sunday Million$ tomorrow and it wasn't going so well, until I played the following hand.  I was low stacked kind of late in the tourny, about $2,500 in chips when everyone else had about twice that and I was next to last in chip count.  In the small blind, I was dealt Ah - 4h and figured that if nobody made a play for it, I would raise the pot rather than limp into the BB.  It folded around to the button and he raised the standard 3x BB.  I took this to be a steal as he had been aggressively stealing the entire tourny, but liked to limp with very good hands if the pot hadn't been opened.  So I re-raised to twice his bet, the min raise.  I figured he would see this as strong since I was the short stack and was pretty close to pot committed already.  He would then raise again to get me in if he had AA or KK and pretty much fold anything else..... or so I thought.  Maybe call with smaller pairs like JJ - 88.  Instead, he pushed all in right there, pre flop.  Hmmmm, I don't think a really strong hand would do that.  And I couldn't figure out why he would risk a significant part of his stack on a mediocre hand when I could have easily thrown away anything I was holding if it was weak.  No, I figured he had been caught stealing, read my raise as a re-steal attempt and was shoving with something pretty mediocre, probably not even an Ace.  So I called, only to find he had shoved with 33.  I was delighted to see that my 4 was an overcard up until the flop came!!!!  2h-3h-3c  Ouch!!!  He had flopped quads.  The turn and river came before I noticed that I would have had a straight draw and a flush draw.  That's when I noticed the turn card was the 5h, giving me a straight flush and the pot over quad threes 3333.  That has to be the absolutely luckiest turn I have ever had and I went on to qualify for the Sunday Million$ tomorrow.  Every once in a while you get really lucky and I guess it was my day.

Many years ago I played baseball in college and hoped for a professional career.  I wasn't the hardest throwing pitcher in the league and I wasn't the biggest or strongest kid on the team either.  But I knew what I was doing on the mound and had terrific success over a four year career.  I managed to beat the best team in our league, the national champs the year before I enrolled, not once, not twice, but three times.  Our team was pretty mediocre and we hadn't beaten the perennial league champs in over twenty years.  And I didn't just beat them, I shut them down by scores of 2-1 and 2-0 my sophomore and junior years.  The shutout was dominating as three of their starting players went on to play in the major leagues.  While I was in school, a football player and I got into a discussion on confidence.  OK, we had been drinking quite a bit, but the discussion was memorable because my roommate quoted parts of that discussion back to me about TWENTY YEARS LATER!!  We were discussing basketball since both the football player and I played in a rec league on campus.  Somehow the question was:  Do you think you could beat Jerry West one-on-one in a game to 10?  Neither of us could, of course, Jerry being the hall of fame point guard on the world champion Lakers at the time.  Also 6' 4" and about 220 lbs. compared to both of us being under 6' and less than 200 lbs. by considerable.  In fact, I doubt we could have taken Jerry even if it was two-on-one. 

But that wasn't the point of discussion.

The point was that I kept insisting that if I were to walk onto the court for a game with Jerry, then I would have totally and completely believed that I was going to win the game.  No doubt about it.  The football player couldn't believe it:

  "You mean that you think you are a better player than Jerry West?"  He asked over and over again.

  "No." I explained patiently several times.  "But if I were to play him, I would believe that I would win while we were playing.  I just don't consider losing while the game is going on.  I ALWAYS feel I am the best player on the field or court when I am playing."

And it's true to this day.  I may be arrogant or simply confident, but I don't participate in contests of any kind without believing I am the best player and i will win.

Poker is no different.  You must believe, not merely think, that you are the best player at the table and will use all of your skills to beat your opponents.  Don't worry about the results.  Play each hand, each street, each card to the best of your ability and the results will take care of themselves.